Six Months Out: Who Will Win the 2024 Election?

Predictions from the Eisenhower Institute’s Inside Washington Students 

By Natalie Frisch ‘27, Sebastian Gikas ‘27, Enna Huseinovic ‘26, Calef Joing ‘27, Chloe Kieper ‘27, Blair O’Connor ‘27 

Edited by Naveen Wineland ’27, Managing Editor

The Eisenhower Institute’s Inside Washington Cohort

As of May 5, the 2024 Presidential Election is now officially six months out. It will likely be a rematch of the 2020 election: former President Donald Trump facing current President Joe Biden. With both candidates headed toward their parties’ nominations, who will win is considered a toss-up. This semester, the Eisenhower Institute’s Inside Washington program examined politics, policymaking, and campaign strategies in a divisive election year. Each of the twelve program participants reflected on who they believe will win the Presidency. Six students submitted reflections to be published in Ike’s Anvil. Three believe Trump will win; three believe Biden will win. 

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Is the United States Ready for Another War in Europe?

By Kalyan Mukherjee ’27

Kalyan Mukherjee ’27

American foreign policy is at a critical moment. Between the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, there is no question that the State Department is more than busy. Renewed tensions between Serbia and Kosovo in the Balkans threaten to burden the United States’ role in the region even more. Due to the history of US involvement in the Balkans, we would almost certainly be obliged to get involved if a conflict were to break out. This would overstretch the already limited aid the US can give allies, especially because of increasing polarization within the US government.   

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Let’s Talk About Geopolitical Illiteracy

By Sophia Meyer ’24

Sophia Meyer ’24

If there is anything that shows the American public’s lack of education on foreign policy and geopolitical issues, the Pew Research Center’s 2022 survey on citizen knowledge tells it all. The report presents a startlingly grim picture and should alarm anyone who reads it. Only about half of Americans correctly answered questions about our involvement in the global system. Just 48% knew that Ukraine was not part of NATO. Only 51% could answer that Antony Blinken is the current U.S. Secretary of State. A solid 25% of respondents answered Not Sure on eleven different questions. This geopolitical illiteracy was evident among men, women, all education levels, all ages, and all political affiliations. What does that say about our understanding of our place in the world? More importantly, what does it say about our ability to form educated opinions on domestic and international politics?  

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Congressional Dysfunction: The Many Failures of the 118th Congress

By Naveen Wineland ’27
Managing Editor, Ike’s Anvil

Naveen Wineland ’27

On February 15, the House of Representatives went on vacation, a two-week recess until February 28. This recess occurred despite numerous pressing challenges requiring our legislature’s urgent attention. During this break, Avdiivka (one of the most critical “fortress cities” in Ukraine) fell to Russian advances due to a lack of American weaponry. Also during this recess, tens of thousands of undocumented immigrants crossed the border due to a lack of adequate legislation from Congress. This is all occurring amid a looming government shutdown, especially since the recess left Congress almost no time to make a deal. A shutdown was narrowly averted with temporary funding through March 8, with 12 funding bills once again in limbo. This is only one manifestation of a House incapable of legislating since being sworn in on January 3, 2023. 

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