Six Months Out: Who Will Win the 2024 Election?

Predictions from the Eisenhower Institute’s Inside Washington Students 

By Natalie Frisch ‘27, Sebastian Gikas ‘27, Enna Huseinovic ‘26, Calef Joing ‘27, Chloe Kieper ‘27, Blair O’Connor ‘27 

Edited by Naveen Wineland ’27, Managing Editor

The Eisenhower Institute’s Inside Washington Cohort

As of May 5, the 2024 Presidential Election is now officially six months out. It will likely be a rematch of the 2020 election: former President Donald Trump facing current President Joe Biden. With both candidates headed toward their parties’ nominations, who will win is considered a toss-up. This semester, the Eisenhower Institute’s Inside Washington program examined politics, policymaking, and campaign strategies in a divisive election year. Each of the twelve program participants reflected on who they believe will win the Presidency. Six students submitted reflections to be published in Ike’s Anvil. Three believe Trump will win; three believe Biden will win. 

Continue reading “Six Months Out: Who Will Win the 2024 Election?”

Is the United States Ready for Another War in Europe?

By Kalyan Mukherjee ’27

Kalyan Mukherjee ’27

American foreign policy is at a critical moment. Between the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, there is no question that the State Department is more than busy. Renewed tensions between Serbia and Kosovo in the Balkans threaten to burden the United States’ role in the region even more. Due to the history of US involvement in the Balkans, we would almost certainly be obliged to get involved if a conflict were to break out. This would overstretch the already limited aid the US can give allies, especially because of increasing polarization within the US government.   

Continue reading “Is the United States Ready for Another War in Europe?”

How to Navigate AI-Superpowered Disinformation

By Tom Cassara ’23

Tom Cassara ’23

If it feels like 2024’s election represents the third “tipping point” in eight years, considering the tumultuous 2016 and 2020 elections, you’re not alone. However, this year is different: it’s global. With more than 2 billion potential voters, the pressure is on as thousands of candidates seek positions of power around the world, including Mexico, India, the EU, and the US.  Continue reading “How to Navigate AI-Superpowered Disinformation”

Is America Ready for Life Post-Chevron?

By Jack Thompson ’27

Jack Thompson ’27

Since 1984, the precedent set by the court case Chevron v. NRDC has controlled the balance of power in the United States. Unfortunately, most Americans can’t get through the words “administrative law” without their eyes glazing over, which puts this precedent in a uniquely undercover position. In short, the idea behind this is that whenever Congress has not spoken directly about an issue, the courts defer to the agency with jurisdiction for filling the policy (regulatory) gap. This has given government bureaucratic agencies broad authority to act as they see fit. Since the court case was decided, Chevron has become a prime conservative target. When Americans make broad, general statements about how little Congress accomplishes, a fair share of that is due to Chevron. Under the doctrine, the less Congress does, the easier it is for federal agencies to function at the direction of technocratic experts. Congress has happily abdicated the role of executing wordy policy, instead deciding to write checks with only broad guidelines for how agencies use the funds. This dynamic has given rise to the infamous “fourth branch” of government: executive agencies.   

Continue reading “Is America Ready for Life Post-Chevron?”

China and the Pax Americana: Adapting Ancient Strategy for Modern Times

By Brandon Fey ’27

Brandon Fey ’27

Competition is the ultimate inevitability of ambitious statehood. Since antiquity, the growth of aspiring powers has been tested by the defiant presence of other powerful states. This is the legacy of great powers, which the United States has now claimed. American preeminence, the global “Pax Americana,” is currently threatened by the aspirant People’s Republic of China. If this definitive struggle is to be successfully endured, the United States must learn from the fates of its predecessors. 

Continue reading “China and the Pax Americana: Adapting Ancient Strategy for Modern Times”

Let’s Talk About Geopolitical Illiteracy

By Sophia Meyer ’24

Sophia Meyer ’24

If there is anything that shows the American public’s lack of education on foreign policy and geopolitical issues, the Pew Research Center’s 2022 survey on citizen knowledge tells it all. The report presents a startlingly grim picture and should alarm anyone who reads it. Only about half of Americans correctly answered questions about our involvement in the global system. Just 48% knew that Ukraine was not part of NATO. Only 51% could answer that Antony Blinken is the current U.S. Secretary of State. A solid 25% of respondents answered Not Sure on eleven different questions. This geopolitical illiteracy was evident among men, women, all education levels, all ages, and all political affiliations. What does that say about our understanding of our place in the world? More importantly, what does it say about our ability to form educated opinions on domestic and international politics?  

Continue reading “Let’s Talk About Geopolitical Illiteracy”

Congressional Dysfunction: The Many Failures of the 118th Congress

By Naveen Wineland ’27
Managing Editor, Ike’s Anvil

Naveen Wineland ’27

On February 15, the House of Representatives went on vacation, a two-week recess until February 28. This recess occurred despite numerous pressing challenges requiring our legislature’s urgent attention. During this break, Avdiivka (one of the most critical “fortress cities” in Ukraine) fell to Russian advances due to a lack of American weaponry. Also during this recess, tens of thousands of undocumented immigrants crossed the border due to a lack of adequate legislation from Congress. This is all occurring amid a looming government shutdown, especially since the recess left Congress almost no time to make a deal. A shutdown was narrowly averted with temporary funding through March 8, with 12 funding bills once again in limbo. This is only one manifestation of a House incapable of legislating since being sworn in on January 3, 2023. 

Continue reading “Congressional Dysfunction: The Many Failures of the 118th Congress”

Ramaswamy vs. the Machine: A Rebel With a Cause

Hard truths for a soft GOP

By Alex Rosado ’24

Alex Rosado ’24

After watching the disastrous GOP outcomes in the November 2023 elections, many conservatives felt overcome with dread and confusion. Notably, Attorney General Daniel Cameron trailed incumbent governor Andy Beshar in Kentucky. Virginia Democrats flipped the state’s House of Delegates while maintaining their Senate. Although Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves won reelection against Democratic contender Brandon Presley, it was the closest gubernatorial election won by a Republican since 1991. Heading into the third GOP presidential debate the next day, Republican voters needed consoling and explanations—instead, what they received from one candidate was brutal honesty. 

Continue reading “Ramaswamy vs. the Machine: A Rebel With a Cause”

Drag Shows Are No Threat to National Security

By Sam Arkin ’23

Sam Arkin ’23

Drag shows are not typically the first thought that comes to mind when asked about national security. However, they have become a significantly contested issue in the security realm. On March 29, against a backdrop of anti-LGBTQ+ state laws passed throughout the United States, drag was raised as an issue during a meeting of the House Armed Services Committee on the Pentagon’s 2024 budget. During the testimony of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, General Mark A. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Under Secretary of Defense Michael J. McCord, Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) inquired into drag performances held on military bases. 

Continue reading “Drag Shows Are No Threat to National Security”

The Role of Language in Defining National Security

By Marisa Conners ’26

Marisa Conners ’26

Words have meaning, and that meaning translates into reality. The more influence an individual or organization has, the more their language could become dangerous and incite violent action. As a participant in Professor Annie Morgan’s Emerging Threats in National Security program, I have learned of the vital role that language plays in the study of national security threats and government policy.

Continue reading “The Role of Language in Defining National Security”