When Donald Trump won the presidency over Hillary Clinton in November of 2016, many pollsters and political pundits were shocked at the outcome. Clinton had been favored in many national and battleground state polls, and yet she found herself conceding the election the next day. One key reason for this political phenomenon was that many states that had reliably voted blue in recent decades, specifically in the Midwest, swung towards Trump, enabling him to secure the 270 electoral votes needed for the presidency. Four years later, one of these states, Wisconsin, once again finds itself in the midst of a tight and all-important presidential election. As Joe Biden and Donald Trump enter the final week of the presidential election, Wisconsin has entered the national spotlight as a critical swing state.
It was fun while it lasted. Alabama will likely vote out their first Democratic Senator elected in 25 years, Sen. Doug Jones, in favor of Republican Tommy Tuberville.
Doug Jones’ initial victory, with 50 points to Roy Moore’s 48, was a major upset, and came as a shock to many. The Associated Press reported December 13, 2017, that Jones’ victory was the first Democratic Senate victory in the state of Alabama in a quarter century (13 December 2017, Associated Press). Jones’ victory narrowed the Senate’s Republican majority to 51-49 at the time, and was encouraging to members of the Democratic Party who planned to reclaim the House and Senate majorities in the following year’s midterm elections. Continue reading “Decision 2020: Doug Jones vs. Tommy Tuberville (AL Senate)”
In an election year unlike any other, the future of the country and the power of the next president could be decided by a few key Senate races. One of the most competitive races is between John Hickenlooper (D) and Cory Gardner (R) in Colorado. Gardner, who was elected to the U.S. Senate in the 2014 Republican midterm wave, is now one of the most vulnerable incumbent GOP senators due to the state’s Democratic shift and his own strong alliance with President Donald Trump. Hickenlooper is a former two-term mayor of Denver from 2004 to 2010 and a two-term governor of Colorado from 2011 to 2019. He was highly regarded by the public, but failed to gain traction in the Democratic presidential primary—he announced his Senate campaign soon after dropping out of the race. This race is critical because if Hickenlooper wins, it would be a huge step towards Democrats regaining control of the Senate for the first time since 2015. A Democratic majority Senate would help Biden achieve his policy goals or help thwart Trump’s second-term agenda.
New York’s Second Congressional District is undergoing massive change this election cycle; from demographic changes to the impending departure of longtime incumbent, Peter King (R), this toss-up district is now looking for a candidate with the insight and sound reasoning to represent a new generation of Long Islanders.
This district is found along the south shore of Long Island, New York. It includes Suffolk County and a small portion of Nassau County. The make-up of this district strongly contributes to the unpredictable nature of this race. According to the New York Times, there were 360,000 registered Republicans in Nassau County in 1996, which was around 100,000 more than the Democrats had at the time. By 2019, the number of registered Democrats had grown to more than 400,000, while the number of Republicans had decreased by more than 30,000. There was a similar trend in Suffolk County; Republican registered voters increased by 18,000 people, while Democrats witnessed a more sizable increase of 160,000 new registered voters.
Not only will North Carolina play a significant role as a swing state in the presidential election, it will also determine what the next Senate will look like. With the Republicans holding a slight 53-47 majority, both the Republican and Democratic parties are closely watching the Senate race unfold in this swing state. The incumbent, Senator Thom Tillis, is finishing up his first term in office, having been elected in 2015. His challenger, Cal Cunningham, is considered a strong pick for Democrats to run in a Republican leaning state to cut into the Republican Senate majority (Slodysko, Robertson).
Cal Cunningham was seen as one of the best candidates the Democratic Party put forward this election cycle, especially in a swing state like North Carolina. Cunningham was a born and raised North Carolinian and decided to join the U.S. Army Reserve after the September 11th attacks. Cunningham has served three tours overseas in Iraq and Afghanistan and was awarded the Bronze Star during his time. Furthermore, Cunningham is running on issues including reforming education, immigration, and the criminal justice system.
In Maine, Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins’ bid for reelection is being challenged by Democrat Sara Gideon. Polls show a close race between Collins, who’s seeking her fifth term, and state House Speaker Gideon. This is one of the closest and highest-profile Senate races of 2020 and is part of a much wider national picture.
In Arizona, the race for a seat in the U.S. Senate comes at a significant time. President Donald Trump has nominated Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, which would most likely swing the court to the right. This could, in return, revoke Roe vs. Wade and the Affordable Care Act. The Democrats believe they have one trick up their sleeve with a special election in Arizona, between the incumbent Martha McSally and Mark Kelly. If Kelly wins and takes office before the vote on Amy Barrett, he could cast a decisive vote at Amy Barrett’s confirmation hearing if three Republicans defect.
Martha McSally was sworn into the U.S. Senate in January of 2019 and previously represented Arizona’s Second Congressional District for four years in the House of Representatives. McSally was a fighter pilot in the Air Force for 26 years before entering politics and retiring as a full colonel.
Max Rose is a Democrat and a member of the U.S. House, representing New York’s 11th Congressional District. The 11th District includes all of Staten Island and some parts of southern Brooklyn. Rose defeated his incumbent Republican Dan Donovan in 2018 and is now running against Republican Nicole Malliotakis. He was only the second Democrat to win the seat in 30 years. Before being elected to office, Rose served in the U.S. Army from 2010 until 2014. He has repeatedly explained that his legislative priorities when he wins the seat again include passing legislation to decrease corruption and to improve infrastructure and commuting in Staten Island. Nicole Malliotakis became a known figure in New York City when she ran against incumbent Mayor Bill de Blasio as a Republican nominee for Mayor in 2017. In January, Malliotakis was sworn in to her 5th term as a Member of the State Assembly. Throughout her terms she has fought to drain the swamp in Albany, sued the Port Authority to expose records that should be public, spoke out on former Assembly Speaker Shelly Silver’s corrupt ways, and has reined in the high taxes she believes are destroying the city and state of New York.
Xochitl Torres-Small is a Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives and represents New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. The district serves the southern half of New Mexico, including Las Cruces, Roswell, and a southern portion of Albuquerque. It is also the fifth largest district in the U.S.
Running against incumbent Torres-Small in the district’s upcoming general election is Yvette Herrell (R) . Steve Jones (I) will also be running in the race as a third-party candidate. Between Torres-Small and Herrell, this will be the second general election. Back in 2018, Torres-Small won the election by a slim margin of 51% against Herrell’s 49%. Prior to Torres-Small’s 2018 victory, the last Democratic representative of the Second Congressional District was Harry Teague in 2011.
The race in Florida’s 26th congressional district is shaping up to be an interesting one indeed. The two contenders are the incumbent Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, elected in 2018, and the challenging Republican and Mayor of Miami-Dade County Carlos Giménez. In regard to the race at hand, the incumbent Mucarsel-Powell is expected to retain her seat only slightly with the website 270 to Win predicting she is estimated to pull ahead at about 1.7%. This is to be expected as according to Ballotpedia Mucarsel-Powell only pulled ahead in 2018 unseating the Republican incumbent, Carlos Curbelo, by 1.8% of the vote. The race itself is not a “gimmie” as it were for Mucarsel-Powell as even for an incumbent those are very slim margins to win by. Carlos Gimenez is as stated the Mayor of Miami-Dade County and was able to get elected twice so his supporter base is nothing to disregard especially due to past Republicans holding Mucaresl-Powell’s seat, showing that conservatives have support in the area.